Thursday, February 14, 2008

IMPORTANT INFORMATION RE: SO-CALLED CALCULATOR TO PREDICT DROP IN PROPERTY VALUES

Well it didn't take long but I didn't figure it would. A local blogger has jumped on a presentation from the board meeting last night and posted a link to a website that will supposedly calculate the value of your house based on its proximity to schools. I say supposedly because the blogger failed to include the disclaimer from said website. The disclaimer reads:

Data is provided for informational purposes only. Actual sales value of a home will depend on many factors, of which proximity to schools is one. Estimates are based off of a study of 1075 residential properties sold in the Oshkosh area over the past year as recorded by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and City of Oshkosh Assessor's data. Beta Biostatistics makes ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY on the suitability of these estimates for any purpose.


Well the way I read the last sentence, these estimates are basically USELESS since the "site" gives ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY that the estimates are suitable for ANY purpose. The site itself says they won't say the estimates can be used for any purpose yet the blogger puts it out there as if it is a fact that your property WILL decrease as the site indicates.

The blog owner also doesn't understand how, even if these figures were accurate, this would work. Contrary to what is posted, property taxes are based on ASSESSED values, not speculative sales price and if the property values did actually drop, the city is still not allowed to increase taxes to "make up the difference", the state holds the city to pretty tight revenue controls and even if property values dropped (and remember there is NO WARRANTY that any of these figures can be used for ANY purpose) the city would have to cut the budget NOT raise taxes.

So don't be fooled by a website that won't vouch for itself. There is no way to verify any of this so called data or the calculations presented.

For those of you who still insist on believing this nonsense, then what you are saying is the district can never change a boundary line that would require a student to go even 6 blocks further to school as it would have a negative impact on property values. Of course once again if you insist on believing in this flawed data, those students who live on the South side of 14th and all of 15th between Oregon and Minnesota have to be happy, under the current plan, their property values would actually increase because Jefferson is closer to their house than Smith is! I'm sure there are many other locations that would find similar results but I'm not about to waste my time on this flawed non-verifiable, non warranted website.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

The disclaimer is that the program does not guarantee what amount the property value changes. That same discaimer would be on a property assessment as, "This is no guarantee this property will sell at the assessed value." Or the disclaimer for realtors when they evaluate your house for sale that what they think your home is worth may not be what you get. In all cases, it could be higher or lower.

There are many articles online that state research shows that aproximately 10% of a home's value comes from its proximity to a school.

Your attempts to discredit are quite transparent. In a low spending district with our current economy and the problems in Madison, we cannot afford to throw away revenue. When property values drop, taxes drop. Great for taxpayers until the school district realizes their lame brained plan needs money and the BOE has to raise taxes to make up the difference.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Teresa Thiel said...

I deleted the above post, it was a cut and paste job from another blog... responding to a post there -- I will continue to delete such obvious cut and paste jobs.

As for Anon. 9:04 Just a question --- do you know what Revenue Caps are? If you did you would know that the BOE cannot raise taxes to make up the difference -- they have to cut budgets. But again, there is NO credible evidence that property values will ACTUALLY drop, just a little calculator made up by a student which has ABSOLUTELY NO Warranty that the estimates can be used in ANY situation...

Anonymous said...

You are ignorant to believe that closing neighborhood schools will not affect property values. It is common sense to some and something that was touted as "unverifiable" by others. Dr. Hess studied the data and verified this for us. Not on his own, but with a professor of Economics. Do you really think that you can discount them on your petty little blog? Who do you think you are? What are your credentials? I hope Dr. Hess reads this and rips you a new one.

On the other hand, we do need to close some schools and some homes will simply lose property value. It most be done to better the OASD. The planners should face the facts head on and stop trying to manipulate them to help their cause. In this case, the ends do not justify the means.

Teresa Thiel said...

Anon 7:23 - You are naive to think a calculator with NO WARRANTY of any kind proves anything. I would rather see someone research the property values in Ohskosh when Dale school closed. I have yet to live in a city where the property values decrease from year to year.

The "study" Mr. Hess mentioned at the board meeting is from Greenville South Carolina and there is a very telling comment from the article:

{In general, there is positive value associated with closer proximity to schools of all levels, and negative value associated with a significantly longer than average distance to schools.}

So it is not simply you used to live 1.3 miles from a school, now you will live 1.9 miles and your property values will drop (which is exactly how that calculator works) unless of course you consider 6 blocks significantly longer than average (which no reasonable person would agree with).

Another quote from the article:

"but the results also indicate that these values are influenced by proximity to elementary, middle, and high schools, a factor not previously considered in the empirical research. "

So at least according to this article "proximity to a school" has NOT previously been considered in the research, this is the first time it has been considered.
Here is the link to the article:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa4051/is_200704/ai_n19198702/pg

I do agree with you that schools need to close and we need to do what we can to improve our schools because what the research shows is the QUALITY of a school can affect property values NOT the proximity (as this article referenced by Mr. Hess clearly states proximity had not been looked at before but you are all hanging your hat on this ONE study?)

Anonymous said...

It sure is funny that you will "hang your hat" on a study of SAGE or K-3 4-8, but when the door swings the other way the study isn't good enough.

Teresa Thiel said...

I do not hang my hat on ONE study of SAGE... there are a multitude of studies about SAGE and small class sizes and I also spent 7 years volunteering (nearly full-time)at Jefferson, 2 years without SAGE and 5 years with SAGE... I saw firsthand the benefits of the program. Can you say you spent 7 years voluteering at a school with SAGE (both before and after) and you saw no benefit?

By all accounts this "program" is based on ONE study --- since the article itself states, that PROXIMITY to a school had NEVER been studied before.